As the 2026 Nobel Prize announcements begin, several writers are again attracting attention.
Can Xue, Haruki Murakami and Gerald Murnane feature among the names tipped for the literature prize.
The Swedish Academy does not publish a shortlist. It also keeps this year’s nominations sealed until 2076.
Therefore, speculation remains the only way to identify possible contenders before the announcement.
Literature fans can also bet on potential winners. The process resembles betting on other major public events, including the next pope.
According to Literary Hub, British bookmaker Ladbrokes has published odds for several writers.
Continental top picks
Can Xue leads the Asian writers with 10/1 odds.
The Chinese author sits ahead of Japan’s Haruki Murakami, who has 14/1 odds. Salman Rushdie follows at 25/1.
Europe also features several well-known names.
Enrique Vila-Matas of Spain, Lídia Jorge of Portugal and Ludmila Ulitskaya of Russia all have 20/1 odds.
In North America, Thomas Pynchon leads the regional list at 16/1.
Mexico’s Cristina Rivera Garza and Canada’s Margaret Atwood follow at 20/1.
Meanwhile, Gerald Murnane represents Oceania at 16/1.
Ananda Devi of Mauritius completes the regional list with odds of 40/1 in Africa.
These figures reflect bookmaker speculation rather than an official Nobel shortlist.
A “Noble” Prize for the Nobel Winner
The winner receives SEK 12 million (about $1.2 million, €1.1 million or ₱75 million), up from SEK 11 million (about $1.1 million, €1 million or ₱69 million) in 2025.
The laureates so far this decade are László Krasznahorkai of Hungary (2025), Han Kang of South Korea (2024), Jon Fosse of Norway (2023), Annie Ernaux of France (2022), Abdulrazak Gurnah of the United Kingdom, born in Zanzibar (2021), and Louise Glück of the USA (2020). Han Kang is the only Asian winner of the past decade.
The Swedish Academy will announce this year’s winner on Thursday, 8 October, at 13:00 CEST (11:00 GMT) at the earliest.
The announcement will be broadcast live on the Nobel Prize’s official digital channels, and the prize will be presented in Stockholm on 10 December 2026.
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