After spending an entire week trapped in his loft looking for his big coat, Jeff Mexico has finally returned to ground level.
Now, he is ready to share his horse racing betting wisdom for Saturday’s ITV Racing schedule.
The Sports News Blitz horse racing oracle has selections for nine contests. Five races come from Haydock, including the Grade 1 Betfair Chase. Three races take place at Ascot, while Punchestown hosts the Grade 1 Morgiana Hurdle.
It should be a busy Saturday. However, the weather could have something to say about that.
Jeff Mexico’s racing tips
How many times has someone told you that they are cold this week?
When you spend as much time as I do walking around in just a pair of pants, you become very aware of the cold. This is especially true in the freezer aisle at Tesco.
I would also like to apologise to the good people in the Truro branch of Tesco. In particular, I apologise to anyone who caught a glimpse of my gooch while I reached into the cabinet for a bag of petit pois.
Yes, I eat the posh peas.
Anyway, horses do not particularly enjoy the cold either. Technically, they also wander around in the nip before returning to their big, comfortable blankets.
Therefore, my biggest concern is doing a full set of tips before a meeting gets abandoned. A horse could also get scratched at the last minute.
We lost several selections last week because of heavy rain. Now, snow and ice are creating another challenge for the stables.
National Hunt racing is certainly tough.
Last weekend produced mixed results. Issam won at Wetherby, while Cueros finished second.
At Cheltenham, Be Aware also finished in the places. My outsider Kap Boy did the same. His price dropped dramatically on Saturday morning, so hopefully some readers managed to take the bigger price earlier.
Right, enough waffle. Let’s get down to business.
There are also a couple of bigger-priced selections later in the day for anyone who enjoys a more adventurous bet.
13:15 (Haydock) – The Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Main tip: Andashan
Andashan performed well on his most recent hurdle outing. He finished third on his handicap debut at Newbury in November.
Furthermore, he remains relatively unexposed in handicap company. The longer trip could also unlock further improvement.
Freddie Gordon takes the ride. He has produced a solid strike rate in conditional and handicap hurdle races.
However, Andashan lacks experience in a large-field Class 2 contest.
The ground is another concern. He could struggle if the pace becomes demanding. Additionally, the step up in trip raises questions about his stamina.
Outsider: Cornier
Cornier won at Nottingham last month.
That recent victory makes him an interesting outsider. He could provide some value if he improves again.
13:30 (Ascot) – The Ladbrokes 1965 Steeple Chase (Grade 2)
Main tip: Il Est Francais
Il Est Francais has strong form in top company. He finished second in last season’s King George VI Chase.
He also has proven stamina for this trip. In addition, he receives a weight advantage over some of his rivals.
However, his form has been inconsistent at times.
There are also several dangerous horses in the field. Therefore, he will need to reproduce his best form to justify support.
Outsider – Gidleigh Park
Gidleigh Park remains lightly raced and could have more improvement to come.
He has won three of his four starts over hurdles. As a result, he could represent an interesting alternative at a bigger price.
13:50 (Haydock) – The Betfair Exchange Graduation Steeple Chase (Class 2)
Main tip – The Jukebox Man
The Jukebox Man is a classy and well-handled chaser.
He has already produced solid form over fences. His previous performances suggest that he can compete at a decent level.
Furthermore, trainer Ben Pauling could use this race as preparation for bigger targets later in the season.
The main concern is fitness.
The Jukebox Man returns from a long absence. Therefore, he may need the run before reaching peak condition.
Outsider – Knappers Hill
Knappers Hill also returns from a lengthy layoff.
He could lack sharpness. However, he has enough class and stamina to cause a surprise if he returns in good form.
14:10 (Punchestown) – Unibet Morgiana Hurdle (Grade One)
Main tip: Lossiemouth
Lossiemouth has already proven herself at the highest level.
She is a multiple Grade 1 winner and ended last season in strong form. Moreover, she arrives fresh for this assignment.
Another positive is her weight. She carries significantly less than some of her rivals.
The Mullins and Townend combination also adds plenty of experience.
However, this is her first race of the season. She could therefore lack some race sharpness.
The four-runner field could also produce a tactical contest. In addition, uncertain ground conditions may become a factor.
Outsider – Ndaawi
Ndaawi is progressive and talented.
He could also be undervalued by the market. Therefore, he is worth considering for anyone looking for an outsider.
14:25 (Haydock) – The Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 1)
Main tip: Ma Shantou
Ma Shantou arrives after a convincing victory over three miles at Haydock.
That performance suggests he can handle the course and distance. Furthermore, his staying ability should prove useful in this contest.
He also carries less weight than some of the leading stayers.
However, this is a big field.
The ground could also become testing. Additionally, Ma Shantou has been raised 9lb for his recent success.
Outsider: Hartington
Hartington has been improving and appears capable of staying this distance.
He won at Carlisle three weeks ago, which gives him useful recent form.
However, the step up in trip could stretch his stamina.
Hartington has been improving and appears capable of staying this distance.
He won at Carlisle three weeks ago, which gives him useful recent form.
However, the step up in trip could stretch his stamina.
14:40 (Ascot) – The Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade 2)
Main tip: Potters Charm
Thumbs up:
Talented younger hurdler, won 4 of his 7 hurdle runs
Already scored in graded company
Twiston-Davies connections have good form and experience at this level
Carrying less weight than rivals
Thumbs down:
Fell at Wetherby in last race
Other impressive staying and improving hurdlers in field
Outsider: Celtic Dino
Well-treated and with the trip and ground to suit. Doesn’t lack for stamina and could improve again
15:00 (Haydock) – The Betfair Steeple Chase (Grade 1)
Main tip: Royale Pagaille
Thumbs up:
Loves the mud, proven on testing ground
Very good record at Haydock, has won five in eight
Won this race twice and is going for a hat-trick
Thumbs down:
First race of season, and hasn’t won or placed in last four. Pulled up twice
At 11 years old, he’s a bit long in the tooth
May not be as reliable as in his prime
The threat of Grey Dawning looms large
Outsider: Handstands
Won all three last season, including a G1 at Sandown. Wasn’t at his best on return at Carlisle though finishing second of four.
15:15 (Ascot) – The Castello Banfi Hurdle Park Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Main tip: Calico
Thumbs up:
Calico won at Cheltenham on last outing
Proven at this distance
Trained by Dan Skelton
Conditions could suit
Thumbs down:
Lot of better rated horses in field
Inconsistent, good form has peaks and troughs
Raised 7lb
Outsider: Sans Bruit
Back-to-back wins at the end of last season, Harry Cobden returns to the saddle
15:35 (Haydock) – The Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2)
Main tip: Duke of Deception
Thumbs up
Has won over similar long trips and has shown he can handle distance.
Ended last season with two wins
Solid, steady jumper
Well weighted
Thumbs down
Haydock is a testing track
Small rise in weight might be an issue
Outsider: Shomen Uchi
Shorter price than Duke of Deception but less exposed and improving. But that inexperience might be a risk
Good luck everyone, and remember – never gamble in your pants.
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